宝くじの期待値は50％です。期待値は当せん金額合計÷発売総額で求めます。300円買うと150円が戻ってくる計算になります。
ではロト６の期待値は何％になるでしょうか？
ロト６はキャリーオーバーという仕組みがあり毎回、当選金額が変動します。
そこで2019年の1年間の当選金額と販売実績を集計してみました。詳細は下表のとおりです。
結果を最初に書くと期待値は45.0％になりました。
つまり、宝くじの方がロト６よりも得ということになります。
| 回数 | 当せん金額合計 | 販売実績額 | 割合 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1445 | ¥971,445,900 | ¥1,638,027,200 | 59.3% |
| 1444 | ¥412,418,300 | ¥1,437,748,600 | 28.7% |
| 1443 | ¥653,378,000 | ¥1,452,162,800 | 45.0% |
| 1442 | ¥623,317,800 | ¥1,385,585,600 | 45.0% |
| 1441 | ¥989,679,500 | ¥1,678,778,400 | 59.0% |
| 1440 | ¥373,510,600 | ¥1,354,108,200 | 27.6% |
| 1439 | ¥625,840,800 | ¥1,391,314,200 | 45.0% |
| 1438 | ¥1,423,697,200 | ¥1,731,375,800 | 82.2% |
| 1437 | ¥473,704,600 | ¥1,629,675,400 | 29.1% |
| 1436 | ¥426,846,200 | ¥1,460,280,400 | 29.2% |
| 1435 | ¥1,075,216,000 | ¥1,677,359,400 | 64.1% |
| 1434 | ¥402,223,800 | ¥1,489,243,400 | 27.0% |
| 1433 | ¥393,899,100 | ¥1,342,980,000 | 29.3% |
| 1432 | ¥658,408,600 | ¥1,380,277,400 | 47.7% |
| 1431 | ¥585,277,800 | ¥1,385,074,800 | 42.3% |
| 1430 | ¥614,333,000 | ¥1,367,231,400 | 44.9% |
| 1429 | ¥972,985,200 | ¥1,546,291,000 | 62.9% |
| 1428 | ¥384,835,000 | ¥1,415,747,200 | 27.2% |
| 1427 | ¥590,525,500 | ¥1,371,736,600 | 43.0% |
| 1426 | ¥903,599,900 | ¥1,490,693,800 | 60.6% |
| 1425 | ¥371,299,300 | ¥1,345,132,600 | 27.6% |
| 1424 | ¥621,715,100 | ¥1,371,897,200 | 45.3% |
| 1423 | ¥542,076,500 | ¥1,215,672,200 | 44.6% |
| 1422 | ¥589,937,500 | ¥1,312,029,800 | 45.0% |
| 1421 | ¥910,389,300 | ¥1,559,098,600 | 58.4% |
| 1420 | ¥384,453,100 | ¥1,321,189,400 | 29.1% |
| 1419 | ¥957,011,300 | ¥1,589,086,800 | 60.2% |
| 1418 | ¥365,288,500 | ¥1,351,361,000 | 27.0% |
| 1417 | ¥592,175,700 | ¥1,316,189,800 | 45.0% |
| 1416 | ¥929,126,200 | ¥1,565,115,400 | 59.4% |
| 1415 | ¥372,052,900 | ¥1,329,852,000 | 28.0% |
| 1414 | ¥929,416,700 | ¥1,564,007,200 | 59.4% |
| 1413 | ¥410,313,500 | ¥1,414,358,000 | 29.0% |
| 1412 | ¥615,041,600 | ¥1,368,429,600 | 44.9% |
| 1411 | ¥659,158,400 | ¥1,466,402,000 | 45.0% |
| 1410 | ¥631,133,800 | ¥1,404,209,200 | 44.9% |
| 1409 | ¥1,777,241,100 | ¥2,164,582,000 | 82.1% |
| 1408 | ¥513,855,600 | ¥1,825,490,200 | 28.1% |
| 1407 | ¥474,794,400 | ¥1,662,806,000 | 28.6% |
| 1406 | ¥337,529,200 | ¥1,251,730,200 | 27.0% |
| 1405 | ¥852,750,200 | ¥1,470,402,000 | 58.0% |
| 1404 | ¥1,090,311,300 | ¥1,741,120,400 | 62.6% |
| 1403 | ¥470,630,800 | ¥1,636,743,000 | 28.8% |
| 1402 | ¥378,440,600 | ¥1,361,617,400 | 27.8% |
| 1401 | ¥1,298,348,500 | ¥1,776,645,800 | 73.1% |
| 1400 | ¥440,637,200 | ¥1,569,038,000 | 28.1% |
| 1399 | ¥372,394,800 | ¥1,352,846,400 | 27.5% |
| 1398 | ¥640,507,600 | ¥1,389,075,200 | 46.1% |
| 1397 | ¥576,909,600 | ¥1,318,786,600 | 43.7% |
| 1396 | ¥704,768,700 | ¥1,461,907,800 | 48.2% |
| 1395 | ¥609,744,200 | ¥1,461,074,800 | 41.7% |
| 1394 | ¥1,349,018,400 | ¥1,829,903,400 | 73.7% |
| 1393 | ¥477,245,100 | ¥1,710,117,200 | 27.9% |
| 1392 | ¥417,068,100 | ¥1,450,251,200 | 28.8% |
| 1391 | ¥1,342,790,600 | ¥1,859,742,200 | 72.2% |
| 1390 | ¥457,468,100 | ¥1,609,750,400 | 28.4% |
| 1389 | ¥413,225,400 | ¥1,452,473,800 | 28.4% |
| 1388 | ¥616,206,700 | ¥1,370,645,600 | 45.0% |
| 1387 | ¥931,736,800 | ¥1,581,097,000 | 58.9% |
| 1386 | ¥386,407,600 | ¥1,351,326,800 | 28.6% |
| 1385 | ¥638,138,300 | ¥1,419,108,200 | 45.0% |
| 1384 | ¥657,540,200 | ¥1,438,940,400 | 45.7% |
| 1383 | ¥614,195,400 | ¥1,390,825,400 | 44.2% |
| 1382 | ¥632,412,900 | ¥1,392,141,600 | 45.4% |
| 1381 | ¥622,929,400 | ¥1,404,492,800 | 44.4% |
| 1380 | ¥692,980,300 | ¥1,464,687,400 | 47.3% |
| 1379 | ¥603,864,400 | ¥1,420,427,200 | 42.5% |
| 1378 | ¥629,782,400 | ¥1,400,607,000 | 45.0% |
| 1377 | ¥1,284,876,500 | ¥1,728,698,000 | 74.3% |
| 1376 | ¥425,887,200 | ¥1,523,042,600 | 28.0% |
| 1375 | ¥401,142,000 | ¥1,403,908,200 | 28.6% |
| 1374 | ¥617,635,600 | ¥1,415,968,200 | 43.6% |
| 1373 | ¥982,096,000 | ¥1,679,141,200 | 58.5% |
| 1372 | ¥416,598,900 | ¥1,430,900,200 | 29.1% |
| 1371 | ¥1,476,346,000 | ¥1,883,699,000 | 78.4% |
| 1370 | ¥456,181,400 | ¥1,647,868,200 | 27.7% |
| 1369 | ¥422,818,000 | ¥1,531,150,200 | 27.6% |
| 1368 | ¥775,963,300 | ¥1,570,570,000 | 49.4% |
| 1367 | ¥1,111,260,900 | ¥1,728,689,200 | 64.3% |
| 1366 | ¥1,111,204,700 | ¥1,839,436,600 | 60.4% |
| 1365 | ¥488,045,200 | ¥1,740,831,200 | 28.0% |
| 1364 | ¥442,084,400 | ¥1,515,111,800 | 29.2% |
| 1363 | ¥408,054,200 | ¥1,428,962,800 | 28.6% |
| 1362 | ¥913,659,100 | ¥1,562,721,000 | 58.5% |
| 1361 | ¥420,284,800 | ¥1,406,919,200 | 29.9% |
| 1360 | ¥909,372,000 | ¥1,544,188,000 | 58.9% |
| 1359 | ¥397,617,100 | ¥1,363,316,200 | 29.2% |
| 1358 | ¥603,396,200 | ¥1,341,832,800 | 45.0% |
| 1357 | ¥629,775,300 | ¥1,400,304,200 | 45.0% |
| 1356 | ¥611,394,600 | ¥1,360,485,200 | 44.9% |
| 1355 | ¥695,167,700 | ¥1,488,915,800 | 46.7% |
| 1354 | ¥571,783,800 | ¥1,328,202,400 | 43.0% |
| 1353 | ¥908,381,000 | ¥1,504,337,200 | 60.4% |
| 1352 | ¥424,303,900 | ¥1,409,804,400 | 30.1% |
| 1351 | ¥613,012,300 | ¥1,416,271,400 | 43.3% |
| 1350 | ¥948,465,200 | ¥1,569,241,600 | 60.4% |
| 1349 | ¥391,396,200 | ¥1,410,701,000 | 27.7% |
| 1348 | ¥614,597,800 | ¥1,365,989,200 | 45.0% |
| 1347 | ¥643,056,900 | ¥1,431,056,600 | 44.9% |
| 1346 | ¥1,019,593,000 | ¥1,639,468,600 | 62.2% |
| 1345 | ¥414,413,900 | ¥1,449,400,600 | 28.6% |
| 1344 | ¥595,489,300 | ¥1,425,305,200 | 41.8% |
| 1343 | ¥882,008,800 | ¥1,887,299,200 | 46.7% |
| 合計 | ¥69,484,969,300 | ¥154,483,863,000 | 45.0% |
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