宝くじとロト6はどちらが得か?

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宝くじの期待値は50%です。期待値は当せん金額合計÷発売総額で求めます。300円買うと150円が戻ってくる計算になります。
ではロト6の期待値は何%になるでしょうか?

ロト6はキャリーオーバーという仕組みがあり毎回、当選金額が変動します。
そこで2019年の1年間の当選金額と販売実績を集計してみました。詳細は下表のとおりです。
結果を最初に書くと期待値は45.0%になりました。
つまり、宝くじの方がロト6よりも得ということになります。

回数 当せん金額合計 販売実績額 割合
1445 ¥971,445,900 ¥1,638,027,200 59.3%
1444 ¥412,418,300 ¥1,437,748,600 28.7%
1443 ¥653,378,000 ¥1,452,162,800 45.0%
1442 ¥623,317,800 ¥1,385,585,600 45.0%
1441 ¥989,679,500 ¥1,678,778,400 59.0%
1440 ¥373,510,600 ¥1,354,108,200 27.6%
1439 ¥625,840,800 ¥1,391,314,200 45.0%
1438 ¥1,423,697,200 ¥1,731,375,800 82.2%
1437 ¥473,704,600 ¥1,629,675,400 29.1%
1436 ¥426,846,200 ¥1,460,280,400 29.2%
1435 ¥1,075,216,000 ¥1,677,359,400 64.1%
1434 ¥402,223,800 ¥1,489,243,400 27.0%
1433 ¥393,899,100 ¥1,342,980,000 29.3%
1432 ¥658,408,600 ¥1,380,277,400 47.7%
1431 ¥585,277,800 ¥1,385,074,800 42.3%
1430 ¥614,333,000 ¥1,367,231,400 44.9%
1429 ¥972,985,200 ¥1,546,291,000 62.9%
1428 ¥384,835,000 ¥1,415,747,200 27.2%
1427 ¥590,525,500 ¥1,371,736,600 43.0%
1426 ¥903,599,900 ¥1,490,693,800 60.6%
1425 ¥371,299,300 ¥1,345,132,600 27.6%
1424 ¥621,715,100 ¥1,371,897,200 45.3%
1423 ¥542,076,500 ¥1,215,672,200 44.6%
1422 ¥589,937,500 ¥1,312,029,800 45.0%
1421 ¥910,389,300 ¥1,559,098,600 58.4%
1420 ¥384,453,100 ¥1,321,189,400 29.1%
1419 ¥957,011,300 ¥1,589,086,800 60.2%
1418 ¥365,288,500 ¥1,351,361,000 27.0%
1417 ¥592,175,700 ¥1,316,189,800 45.0%
1416 ¥929,126,200 ¥1,565,115,400 59.4%
1415 ¥372,052,900 ¥1,329,852,000 28.0%
1414 ¥929,416,700 ¥1,564,007,200 59.4%
1413 ¥410,313,500 ¥1,414,358,000 29.0%
1412 ¥615,041,600 ¥1,368,429,600 44.9%
1411 ¥659,158,400 ¥1,466,402,000 45.0%
1410 ¥631,133,800 ¥1,404,209,200 44.9%
1409 ¥1,777,241,100 ¥2,164,582,000 82.1%
1408 ¥513,855,600 ¥1,825,490,200 28.1%
1407 ¥474,794,400 ¥1,662,806,000 28.6%
1406 ¥337,529,200 ¥1,251,730,200 27.0%
1405 ¥852,750,200 ¥1,470,402,000 58.0%
1404 ¥1,090,311,300 ¥1,741,120,400 62.6%
1403 ¥470,630,800 ¥1,636,743,000 28.8%
1402 ¥378,440,600 ¥1,361,617,400 27.8%
1401 ¥1,298,348,500 ¥1,776,645,800 73.1%
1400 ¥440,637,200 ¥1,569,038,000 28.1%
1399 ¥372,394,800 ¥1,352,846,400 27.5%
1398 ¥640,507,600 ¥1,389,075,200 46.1%
1397 ¥576,909,600 ¥1,318,786,600 43.7%
1396 ¥704,768,700 ¥1,461,907,800 48.2%
1395 ¥609,744,200 ¥1,461,074,800 41.7%
1394 ¥1,349,018,400 ¥1,829,903,400 73.7%
1393 ¥477,245,100 ¥1,710,117,200 27.9%
1392 ¥417,068,100 ¥1,450,251,200 28.8%
1391 ¥1,342,790,600 ¥1,859,742,200 72.2%
1390 ¥457,468,100 ¥1,609,750,400 28.4%
1389 ¥413,225,400 ¥1,452,473,800 28.4%
1388 ¥616,206,700 ¥1,370,645,600 45.0%
1387 ¥931,736,800 ¥1,581,097,000 58.9%
1386 ¥386,407,600 ¥1,351,326,800 28.6%
1385 ¥638,138,300 ¥1,419,108,200 45.0%
1384 ¥657,540,200 ¥1,438,940,400 45.7%
1383 ¥614,195,400 ¥1,390,825,400 44.2%
1382 ¥632,412,900 ¥1,392,141,600 45.4%
1381 ¥622,929,400 ¥1,404,492,800 44.4%
1380 ¥692,980,300 ¥1,464,687,400 47.3%
1379 ¥603,864,400 ¥1,420,427,200 42.5%
1378 ¥629,782,400 ¥1,400,607,000 45.0%
1377 ¥1,284,876,500 ¥1,728,698,000 74.3%
1376 ¥425,887,200 ¥1,523,042,600 28.0%
1375 ¥401,142,000 ¥1,403,908,200 28.6%
1374 ¥617,635,600 ¥1,415,968,200 43.6%
1373 ¥982,096,000 ¥1,679,141,200 58.5%
1372 ¥416,598,900 ¥1,430,900,200 29.1%
1371 ¥1,476,346,000 ¥1,883,699,000 78.4%
1370 ¥456,181,400 ¥1,647,868,200 27.7%
1369 ¥422,818,000 ¥1,531,150,200 27.6%
1368 ¥775,963,300 ¥1,570,570,000 49.4%
1367 ¥1,111,260,900 ¥1,728,689,200 64.3%
1366 ¥1,111,204,700 ¥1,839,436,600 60.4%
1365 ¥488,045,200 ¥1,740,831,200 28.0%
1364 ¥442,084,400 ¥1,515,111,800 29.2%
1363 ¥408,054,200 ¥1,428,962,800 28.6%
1362 ¥913,659,100 ¥1,562,721,000 58.5%
1361 ¥420,284,800 ¥1,406,919,200 29.9%
1360 ¥909,372,000 ¥1,544,188,000 58.9%
1359 ¥397,617,100 ¥1,363,316,200 29.2%
1358 ¥603,396,200 ¥1,341,832,800 45.0%
1357 ¥629,775,300 ¥1,400,304,200 45.0%
1356 ¥611,394,600 ¥1,360,485,200 44.9%
1355 ¥695,167,700 ¥1,488,915,800 46.7%
1354 ¥571,783,800 ¥1,328,202,400 43.0%
1353 ¥908,381,000 ¥1,504,337,200 60.4%
1352 ¥424,303,900 ¥1,409,804,400 30.1%
1351 ¥613,012,300 ¥1,416,271,400 43.3%
1350 ¥948,465,200 ¥1,569,241,600 60.4%
1349 ¥391,396,200 ¥1,410,701,000 27.7%
1348 ¥614,597,800 ¥1,365,989,200 45.0%
1347 ¥643,056,900 ¥1,431,056,600 44.9%
1346 ¥1,019,593,000 ¥1,639,468,600 62.2%
1345 ¥414,413,900 ¥1,449,400,600 28.6%
1344 ¥595,489,300 ¥1,425,305,200 41.8%
1343 ¥882,008,800 ¥1,887,299,200 46.7%
合計 ¥69,484,969,300 ¥154,483,863,000 45.0%

[ 2020年1月4日 | カテゴリー: 豆知識 | タグ: , ]

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